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McGuire Quarterly Report | Q2 2016 [sponsored]

Strong but stable Q2 2016 points to growing buyer-seller balance.

While there were some headline-worthy patterns in terms of sales prices and volume this quarter, the common thread that ran through nearly all Bay Area counties was one of stability. Sellers can be enthused that five of the seven counties we represent recorded all-time-high average home sale prices, but buyers should also take note that Q2 is known for big prices, and these average gains were noticeably lower than in previous years.

Although it might be startling to hear that all seven counties saw year-over-year home sales decline, the flip side is that five counties were down by a meager 5 percent or less, with even the highest sales volume drop being only 11 percent in Sonoma County. These trends were particularly pronounced in the three most affluent counties of San Francisco, Mid-Peninsula and Marin County. To put the market’s easing up into perspective, the Q2 2015 price was up $160,000 from Q2 2014, and the Q2 2014 price was up $200,000 from Q2 2013. The point being that despite an all-time record, the market’s year-over-year appreciation rate is slowing down noticeably.

Marin County absorbed some of the San Francisco’s spillover effect in its high-priced sector, with the average home sale closing at $1.597 million. This was a record price for Marin County homes, and was up 6 percent from Q2 2015. Marin County also witnessed the most drastic change in average days on market (DOM), with homes selling in just 37 DOM, a pace that was 30 percent faster than a year prior. This can be attributed to both an onslaught of desirable properties hitting the market this spring as well as many older estates that had spent a long time on the market exiting last winter. The 675 total number of sales was down 4 percent from Q2 2015—right in line with the modest-but-stable sales volume we saw in both San Francisco and Marin Counties.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE BY CITY (THE TOP 10): Stinson Beach, Larkspur and Ross all posted strong year-over-year gains, improving by 51 percent, 33 percent and 25 percent, respectively. SALES PRICE CHANGE: With homes priced at top dollar, sellers netted just 3 percent on top of initial asking price. Those who tested the market were still able to recover 91 percent of their initial listing.

The North Bay Luxury Market performed well, with its $3.121 million average sales up 10 percent year-over-year. This was slightly counterbalanced, however, by the 227 sales for the region being down 6 percent from Q2 2015. Yet, luxury homes in the North Bay did move at a healthy pace of 51 DOM during the second quarter—an average that was 37 percent faster than the previous year.

Download the complete McGuire Q2 2016 Report at mcguire.com/quarterly_report to learn more.

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